Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EF 0xef5c…661d other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$21,294 (+19%) realized +$19,639 · open +$1,655
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$2,536per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$27,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$11,521
14 days+$12,407
30 days+$18,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% +$17,286
economics 23% +$1,747
other 4% +$1,155
sports 2% −$229
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% +$5
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% +9.3%
≤30d 30 +54.4% +39.7% 47% 37% +13.7%
≤90d 34 +45.9% +32.0% 47% 35% +10.0%
all 34 +45.9% +32.0% 47% 35% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.0% 35% +10.0%
10% ← realistic here +19.3% 26% -0.5%
15% +7.8% 26% -10.1%
20% -2.8% 15% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +67% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,304 vs −$141 · ×9.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.23 per $1 lost it wins $8.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$27,803
Realized+$19,639
Unrealized+$1,655
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions10
Markets (closed)34 / 44
History coverage80d
Avg bet$2,536
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $13,680 $14,631 +$951 (+7%)
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No 77¢ 83¢ $8,889 $9,499 +$610 (+7%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $1,600 $1,716 +$116 (+7%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No 63¢ 66¢ $1,260 $1,330 +$70 (+6%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $220 $199 −$21 (-10%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $292 $182 −$111 (-38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 97¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 80¢ 84¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 20¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+144%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$30 -29%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 25 $53,854 +$10,848 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $811 +$439 +54%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $313 +$355 +114%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $96 +$17 +17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 19 $1,006 +$64 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 +$83 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$51 -51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$89 -18%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $105 −$90 -86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$374 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $58 +$5 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 +$1,973 +1917%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $10,489 +$6,281 +60%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 15 $12,708 +$30 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $202 −$58 -29%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $1,000 +$169 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 7m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 10m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 11m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 11m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 11m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $105 20m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 22m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 26m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 26m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 27m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 27m
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes $0 34m
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes $1 46m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $112 47m
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 82¢ $406 55m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 16¢ $89 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 1h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL No 52¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $73 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $97 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,803.16 · official $27,856.99 (match) · 476 history records