Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EF 0xef5c…ae5d crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$116 (+52%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +49.2% +35.0% 80% 80% +38.0%
≤30d 5 +49.2% +35.0% 80% 80% +38.0%
≤90d 5 +49.2% +35.0% 80% 80% +38.0%
all 5 +49.2% +35.0% 80% 80% +38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.0% 80% +38.0%
10% +22.1% 80% +24.8%
15% +10.3% 80% +12.7%
20% -0.5% 80% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$40 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$30 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $47 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $47 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records