Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef58…4d17
other · 28 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$70 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$54
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 6 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 39¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 86¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Yes 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$15 +85%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$14 +70%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +58%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Osters IF vs. IFK Varnamo: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$18
sports 31% +$43
crypto 25% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $2 5h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 5h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $7 6h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 41¢ $2 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $2 24h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 45¢ $2 35h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 35h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 35h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 37h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 62¢ $5 37h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 69¢ $5 37h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +21.3% +9.7% 68% 68% +25.8%
≤30d 22 +21.3% +9.7% 68% 68% +25.8%
≤90d 22 +21.3% +9.7% 68% 68% +25.8%
all 22 +21.3% +9.7% 68% 68% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 68% +25.8%
10% -0.8% 68% +13.7%
15% -10.4% 64% +2.7%
20% -19.1% 45% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.87 · official $53.87 (match) · 54 history records