Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef56…8652 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 21% −$2
politics 18% +$1
sports 8% +$1
crypto 4% +$2
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 17% -9.2%
≤30d 26 -4.1% -13.2% 42% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 73 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 4% -9.6%
all 88 -2.1% -11.4% 35% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage317d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $30 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $68 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $8 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $22 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $19 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $151 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $72 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $26 −$3 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $75 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $29 +$2 +6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $124 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $35 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $38 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $14 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $3 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $13 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.44 · official $32.44 (match) · 383 history records