Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef55…9eb9 world 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,413 (-9%) realized −$1,415 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%60W / 53L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$279
7 days−$150
14 days−$119
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1,566
finance 19% +$16
other 12% +$363
sports 8% −$226
politics 2% +$13
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.7% -24.6% 50% 45% -17.3%
≤30d 28 +3.3% -6.6% 61% 57% -14.1%
≤90d 74 +4.1% -5.8% 57% 49% -20.2%
all 113 +13.7% +2.9% 53% 43% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 43% -17.5%
10% -6.9% 30% -25.4%
15% -15.9% 24% -32.6%
20% -24.2% 17% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$70 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$1,415
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses60 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)113 / 124
History coverage125d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 17¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 55¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$20 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $602 +$58 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 +$18 +35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 21 $50 −$20 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 21 $110 −$77 -70%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 21 $160 −$139 -87%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $5 +$12 +245%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 03 $250 +$4 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $105 +$20 +19%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $50 +$10 +19%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $560 +$35 +6%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $5 +$27 +550%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 21 $80 −$59 -74%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $400 +$43 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $30 −$25 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $10 +$24 +244%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $50 +$19 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $40 +$79 +197%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 15 $50 −$29 -58%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $10 +$13 +134%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $50 +$40 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $60 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $50 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.47 · official $387.47 (match) · 437 history records