Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef54…aeca other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 130L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 33% −$11
sports 12% +$3
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 142 -3.0% -12.3% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage131d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $288 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $133 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $143 −$2 -1%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $306 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $162 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $290 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $164 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $317 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $337 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $354 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $331 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $137 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $345 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $270 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $160 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 5h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 12h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $157 24d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $157 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $170 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $170 26d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $148 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $148 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $152 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $152 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 30d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $125 31d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $125 32d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $166 33d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 33d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 33d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 34d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $163 34d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $163 34d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $148 34d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $148 35d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $170 35d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $170 36d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 36d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 36d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $146 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 421 history records