Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef4b…2f60 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$115 (-33%) realized −$114 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-63.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -59.8% -63.6% 25% 25% -60.3%
≤30d 12 -59.8% -63.6% 25% 25% -60.3%
≤90d 12 -59.8% -63.6% 25% 25% -60.3%
all 12 -59.8% -63.6% 25% 25% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.6% 25% -60.3%
10% ← realistic here -67.1% 25% -64.1%
15% -70.3% 25% -67.6%
20% -73.2% 8% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$21 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.80 · official $23.80 (match) · 28 history records