Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef4a…021f politics 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$58 (+3%) realized +$63 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$75
crypto 28% −$168
other 16% +$54
world 12% +$64
sports 1% +$4
tech 1% +$45
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +63.8% +48.2% 100% 100% +48.2%
≤30d 1 +63.8% +48.2% 100% 100% +48.2%
≤90d 9 -31.0% -37.6% 33% 33% -35.7%
all 90 -8.7% -17.4% 29% 28% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 28% -6.5%
10% -25.3% 26% -15.5%
15% -32.5% 24% -23.6%
20% -39.1% 21% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$14 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage695d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$16 +64%
Will Project Hail Mary have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? Apr 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 09 $24 −$24 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 09 $10 +$21 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $59 +$13 +22%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 25 $22 −$17 -78%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic openi Mar 12 $17 −$17 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $152 +$33 +21%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15? Feb 15 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jan 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "American Dream" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $20 +$11 +56%
AOC announces senate run in 2025? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Nov 26 $10 +$5 +54%
U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July? Nov 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 08 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Trump say "DOGE" during his Cabinet Meeting on April 30? May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 08 $200 −$43 -22%
Will Trump say "Brilliant" during his University of Alabama commenceme May 06 $50 +$25 +49%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 30 $20 +$130 +650%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 30 $20 +$180 +900%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Trudeau out in 2024? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state? Dec 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 2.0-3.0%? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 1-2.0%? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 4.0% or more? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 3.0-4.0%? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 19 $50 +$54 +108%
Will the AP call the election on November 5? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? Nov 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the AP call the election on November 6? Nov 07 $8 +$9 +108%
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? Nov 05 $10 +$15 +150%
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL? Nov 04 $40 +$32 +81%
Netanyahu out by October 31? Nov 03 $20 −$12 -60%
Will JD Vance say "Kamala Harris" 30 or more times during the debate? Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Usha" during the debate? Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mark Robinson drop out in September? Sep 25 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Trump say "Rug" or "Rugged" during the X space? Sep 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" during the X space? Sep 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Twitter" during the X space? Sep 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump post about Laura Loomer by Sunday? Sep 15 $10 +$11 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 60d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 85d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $63 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 93d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 95d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 95d
Will Project Hail Mary have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 98d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic openi BUY Yes 2¢ $17 98d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 99d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 100d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? SELL No 96¢ $185 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $50 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 79¢ $152 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 117d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 100¢ $145 118d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 123d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 124d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 124d
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during WEF Address on January 21? SELL No 100¢ $31 148d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY No 69¢ $100 148d
Will Trump say "American Dream" during WEF Address on January 21? BUY No 44¢ $20 148d
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" during WEF Address on January 21? BUY No 61¢ $20 148d
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during WEF Address on January 21? BUY No 64¢ $20 148d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? BUY No 32¢ $50 204d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? SELL Yes 37¢ $205 405d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.56 · official $54.57 (match) · 292 history records