Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef47…a8e3 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$5
other 26% $0
politics 7% −$10
tech 7% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -10.6% -19.1% 23% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -10.6% -19.1% 23% 0% -10.5%
all 25 -9.4% -18.0% 32% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -12.1%
10% -25.8% 0% -20.5%
15% -33.0% 0% -28.2%
20% -39.6% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage459d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $33 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $48 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 15 $11 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $45 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $45 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $3 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 13h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $28 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $45 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $31 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $47 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records