Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef46…b0ea sports 504 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,116 (-8%) realized −$21,522 · open −$1,594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%205W / 292L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$557per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$3,864est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,641
7 days−$5,744
14 days−$7,674
30 days−$18,982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$25,053
other 2% +$1,970
politics 1% −$281
world 0% −$464
economics 0% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.9% -17.6% 41% 38% -27.6%
≤30d 124 -14.6% -22.8% 40% 36% -24.4%
≤90d 365 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 39% -19.3%
all 497 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 40% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 40% -16.8%
10% -22.5% 39% -24.8%
15% ← realistic here -30.0% 39% -32.1%
20% -36.9% 37% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$726) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$542 vs −$457 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$1,949
Realized−$21,522
Unrealized−$1,594
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses205 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$3,864
Open positions7
Markets (closed)497 / 504
History coverage143d
Avg bet$557
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Tommy Paul 75¢ 76¢ $750 $755 +$5 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 39¢ 34¢ $585 $517 −$68 (-12%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Corentin Moutet 44¢ 42¢ $440 $415 −$25 (-6%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Katie Volynets 53¢ 16¢ $487 $143 −$345 (-71%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 51¢ 52¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $160 $40 −$120 (-75%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 0¢ $1,045 $1 −$1,044 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $1,007 +$542 +54%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $380 +$620 +163%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,078 +106%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $131 +$4 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,140 +$1,860 +163%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $600 −$464 -77%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1,011 +$654 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $607 +$393 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,624 −$1,600 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $896 −$527 -59%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $780 −$780 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $495 −$495 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $857 +$1,143 +133%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $855 +$1,145 +134%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $660 −$660 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1,623 −$293 -18%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $750 −$575 -77%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $750 +$630 +84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $596 −$479 -80%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,093 +$545 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $647 −$6 -1%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $1,075 +$885 +82%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $1,195 −$666 -56%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 11 $550 −$550 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $1,989 −$1,989 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $4,277 −$3,940 -92%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $720 +$789 +110%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $600 +$400 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $915 +$585 +64%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $224 −$224 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roman Safiullin vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 09 $232 +$214 +92%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $611 −$51 -8%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $671 −$364 -54%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $896 −$765 -85%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $836 +$664 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $776 +$574 +74%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $1,447 +$1,041 +72%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $967 −$954 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $141 +$19 +13%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $535 −$525 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $488 +$35 +7%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $1,672 +$136 +8%
Makarska: Barbora Palicova vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 05 $588 −$77 -13%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $9 +$5 +54%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $2,080 +$1,032 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Katie Volynets 49¢ $39 19m
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 53¢ $537 32m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $596 58m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $168 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $325 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $888 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $38 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $6 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $60 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $90 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $7 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $74 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $16 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $51 8h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $70 8h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $132 8h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 51¢ $10 9h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $97 10h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $7 10h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $7 10h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $206 10h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $7 10h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $1 10h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $1 10h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 44¢ $117 10h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 51¢ $67 10h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $1,059 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $380 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $135 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $1,140 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,949.02 · official $1,949.17 (match) · 3381 history records