Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef41…2473 other 807 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,151 (-20%) realized −$5,134 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%312W / 493L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$124
14 days+$286
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,724
sports 49% −$3,452
world 1% −$61
crypto 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +18.9% +7.6% 39% 39% -2.6%
≤30d 121 +12.5% +1.7% 37% 37% -13.3%
≤90d 357 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 36% -18.9%
all 805 -7.2% -16.0% 39% 39% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 39% -28.5%
10% -24.1% 38% -35.3%
15% -31.4% 38% -41.6%
20% -38.1% 37% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$30 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized−$5,134
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses312 / 493
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)805 / 807
History coverage307d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $542 $522 −$20 (-4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 52¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$19 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $37 −$36 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $459 +$115 +25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $84 +$17 +20%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $19 −$18 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $16 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 −$52 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$15 +83%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 +$24 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$48 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 +$24 +96%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $17 +$32 +185%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$50 +100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 +$61 +134%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $70 −$22 -31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$57 +1115%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$21 +233%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$20 +99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$34 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 +$18 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $42 −$42 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$30 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $43 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $38 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $37 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $3 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 97¢ $40 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $4 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $525 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $146 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $140 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $134 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $128 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 63¢ $101 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $96 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $51 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $33 22h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $5 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 34¢ $19 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $16 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $3 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 98¢ $0 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 96¢ $34 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.88 · official $566.88 (match) · 2063 history records