Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef3a…b72e crypto 600 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$313 (-2%) realized −$319 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate53%313W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$71
14 days+$24
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$605
weather 33% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +2.9% -6.9% 96% 10% -8.1%
≤30d 523 -10.5% -19.0% 52% 18% -13.3%
≤90d 593 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 22% -12.8%
all 593 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 22% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 22% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 16% -21.1%
15% -31.6% 9% -28.7%
20% -38.3% 6% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses313 / 280
Open positions7
Markets (closed)593 / 600
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $127 $131 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $106 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $117 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $125 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $79 +$19 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $68 +$16 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 +$25 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $74 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $94 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $128 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $73 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $61 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $81 34m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $129 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $17 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $127 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $127 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $28 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $37 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $128 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $94 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $84 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $36 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.20 · official $460.07 (match) · 3500 history records