Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef34…1d61 crypto 845 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 300d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,165 (+4%) realized +$1,271 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%419W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$416
14 days−$65
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$1,469
other 27% +$843
sports 24% +$693
finance 4% +$109
politics 4% +$104
world 2% −$17
tech 2% +$38
culture 1% +$61
economics 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -38.0% -43.9% 32% 29% -23.5%
≤30d 112 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 46% -10.3%
≤90d 143 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 48% -8.0%
all 821 +9.8% -0.7% 51% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 47% -8.2%
10% -10.2% 42% -17.0%
15% -18.9% 34% -25.0%
20% -26.8% 24% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$1,432
Realized+$1,271
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses419 / 402
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions22
Markets (closed)821 / 845
History coverage300d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 57¢ $214 $230 +$16 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 71¢ $140 $142 +$2 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $141 $139 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 69¢ $122 $139 +$17 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 26¢ $220 $128 −$92 (-42%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 18¢ $125 $81 −$44 (-35%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 78¢ $42 $67 +$26 (+61%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 57¢ 70¢ $53 $65 +$12 (+23%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $49 $61 +$12 (+24%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 60¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+15%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $46 $56 +$9 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 55¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $45 $42 −$4 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-8%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 37¢ 11¢ $45 $13 −$32 (-71%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $32 $13 −$19 (-60%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $33 +$24 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $59 +$27 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$53 +134%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $38 −$29 -77%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $48 −$10 -21%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $37 +$38 +104%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $64 −$63 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 −$9 -24%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $65 +$24 +38%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $49 +$19 +38%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $67 −$8 -12%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 21 $37 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -85%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $52 −$24 -46%
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $44 −$21 -48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Robert Lewandowski be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 21 $9 −$7 -82%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-25? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 in April? Jun 21 $31 −$16 -51%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? Jun 21 $36 −$14 -37%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Jun 21 $88 −$56 -64%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 −$34 -85%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 55¢ $27 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 58¢ $33 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 39¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 4h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $38 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Bosnia-Herze BUY 59¢ $51 5h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 6h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 55¢ $38 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 26h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $22 28h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 28h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 28h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $64 29h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 2d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $89 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 91¢ $68 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 65¢ $49 2d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $65 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,432.37 · official $1,482.66 · 3500 history records