Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xef33…6be3 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$750 (+5%) realized +$550 · open +$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate66%59W / 30L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$575
7 days−$579
14 days+$694
30 days+$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% +$851
sports 39% +$170
other 13% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 35% -14.6%
≤30d 89 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 35% -4.3%
≤90d 89 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 35% -4.3%
all 89 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 35% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 35% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 22% -13.4%
15% -26.2% 15% -21.8%
20% -33.4% 11% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$64 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,550
Realized+$550
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses59 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 93
History coverage8d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,052 +$52 (+5%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $250 $385 +$135 (+54%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? No 85¢ 100¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 75¢ 80¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$56 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $501 +$26 +5%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 +$35 +172%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $100 +$15 +15%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $252 +$77 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $30 +$21 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $603 +$112 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $150 +$13 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $151 −$135 -89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$68 -68%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$112 -74%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 −$63 -78%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $21 +$122 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $201 +$52 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$34 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$16 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $248 −$21 -9%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $122 −$5 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $121 +$33 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $802 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 85¢ $50 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 75¢ $50 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $301 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 3h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $501 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $252 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $51 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $100 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $51 15h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,549.55 · official $1,549.56 (match) · 212 history records