Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef32…265c world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,667 (+15%) realized +$3,524 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$806per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,297
7 days+$2,404
14 days+$3,554
30 days+$3,312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$3,824
crypto 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.7% -12.9% 67% 33% +5.0%
≤30d 21 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 29% +5.8%
≤90d 26 -10.4% -18.9% 58% 27% +5.2%
all 29 -7.9% -16.6% 55% 28% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 28% +6.4%
10% -24.6% 21% -3.8%
15% -31.9% 14% -13.1%
20% -38.6% 14% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$994) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$53 · ×5.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.35 per $1 lost it wins $6.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$4,356
Realized+$3,524
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage144d
Avg bet$806
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 46¢ $4,212 $4,353 +$141 (+3%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 45¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+183%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $88 +$4 +5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $2,010 +$1,253 +62%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $555 +$93 +17%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $1,997 +$83 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $1,784 +$1,023 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3,113 −$266 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,676 +$107 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $994 +$111 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,766 −$5 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,773 +$155 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $918 +$95 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $505 +$781 +155%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $300 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $309 +$100 +32%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 07 $280 +$16 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $400 −$221 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $64 −$19 -29%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 17 $300 −$50 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 04 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -69%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $547 +$515 +94%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 13 $164 −$28 -17%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $200 −$72 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $201 35m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $45 37m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $2 41m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $200 42m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $902 44m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $57 46m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $217 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $2,588 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $88 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $3,263 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $181 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $1,002 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 63¢ $1,008 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $133 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $335 15h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $432 35h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $67 35h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $72 35h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $265 35h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $120 35h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 35h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,516 35h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,807 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 42h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $481 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $483 42h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,356.11 · official $4,356.08 (match) · 163 history records