Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef32…00f9 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$646 (+3%) realized +$1,027 · open −$381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate77%30W / 9L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$645
sports 6% +$459
other 1% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +19.5% +8.2% 77% 59% -2.3%
≤30d 39 +19.5% +8.2% 77% 59% -2.3%
≤90d 39 +19.5% +8.2% 77% 59% -2.3%
all 39 +19.5% +8.2% 77% 59% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 59% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 44% -11.7%
15% -11.6% 33% -20.2%
20% -20.3% 23% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,012) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$199 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized+$1,027
Unrealized−$381
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses30 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 64¢ 38¢ $1,000 $606 −$394 (-39%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1,215 +$230 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $1,013 +$203 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $1,011 +$183 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $1,223 +$372 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $1,017 +$72 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $1,085 −$1,066 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $1,012 −$61 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $1,518 +$216 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $1,007 +$86 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $1,517 +$147 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $2,549 +$199 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $719 +$117 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $1,228 +$372 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $709 +$75 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $206 +$114 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $204 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $204 +$71 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $151 −$63 -41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$131 +128%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$5 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $153 +$196 +128%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 −$114 -76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $81 +$35 +43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 −$23 -60%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 +$53 +66%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $50 +$22 +44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $35 +$13 +37%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1,026 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,445 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1,014 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,216 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1,013 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1,011 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $360 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1,234 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1,020 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1,089 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1,017 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $512 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $573 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $951 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1,012 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1,734 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1,013 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,092 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1,007 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1,665 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1,012 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1,180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1,014 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1,339 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $512 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.79 · official $1,201.54 · 94 history records