Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef31…ff7f world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$5
culture 19% $0
other 8% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 4% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 +1.4% -8.2% 36% 9% -8.2%
≤90d 11 +1.4% -8.2% 36% 9% -8.2%
all 26 +1.1% -8.5% 54% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -8.6%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.55 per $1 lost it wins $4.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage464d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $31 +$5 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $4 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $14 $0 +1%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? Mar 11 $14 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $47 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $36 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $31 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.57 · official $44.22 (match) · 78 history records