Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xef30…f009 other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-0%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate82%85W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$58
other 1% +$25
crypto 1% −$1
sports 0% −$51
culture 0% +$1
world 0% −$18
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 104 -4.7% -13.8% 82% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 15% -9.7%
10% -22.0% 11% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 9% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses85 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage614d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BNB reach $900 in May? Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 20-26? May 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? Apr 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will Lighter reach $5.50 in January? Feb 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? Feb 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Netflix reach $228 in January? Feb 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of January 2 Feb 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Jan 12 $90 $0 +0%
Spread: Newcastle (-1.5) Dec 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 Dec 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 3.5 Dec 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Everton vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Dec 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-29? Dec 07 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Dec 07 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: Bournemouth (-1.5) Dec 07 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29? Dec 07 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? Dec 07 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-29? Dec 07 $13 +$27 +212%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? Nov 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chad vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Nov 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Somalia win on 2025-11-17? Nov 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2025-11-17? Nov 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chad win on 2025-11-17? Nov 28 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw? Nov 28 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Madagascar win on 2025-11-17? Nov 28 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Bahrain vs. Somalia end in a draw? Nov 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-11-17? Nov 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Lithuania vs. Israel end in a draw? Nov 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Nov 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Lithuania win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Canada vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Nov 16 $5 +$9 +187%
Will San Marino win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2025-11-13? Nov 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Czechia vs. San Marino end in a draw? Nov 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Nov 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will Victory win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary elec Oct 22 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Sep 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole? Aug 19 $132 $0 +0%
Will Ras Baraka win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Je Jul 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislati Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Apr 06 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will BNB reach $900 in May? BUY No 100¢ $91 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $91 59d
Will Netflix reach $368 in March? BUY No 99¢ $91 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $91 133d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of January 2 BUY Yes 100¢ $19 162d
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? BUY No 93¢ $9 162d
Will Netflix reach $228 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 162d
Will Lighter reach $5.50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 162d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 162d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 162d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 174d
Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $13 206d
Spread: Newcastle (-1.5) BUY Everton 87¢ $12 206d
Will Everton win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 65¢ $7 206d
Will Everton vs. Newcastle end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 206d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 206d
Spread: Bournemouth (-1.5) BUY Sunderland AFC 82¢ $12 206d
Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $12 206d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 206d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 60¢ $10 206d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 206d
Will Somalia win on 2025-11-17? BUY No 94¢ $10 219d
Will Bahrain vs. Somalia end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $10 219d
Will Bahrain win on 2025-11-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 219d
Will Chad win on 2025-11-17? BUY No 91¢ $8 219d
Will Chad vs. Mozambique end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $7 219d
Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 219d
Will Madagascar win on 2025-11-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 219d
Will Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $7 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.25 · official $91.25 (match) · 241 history records