Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef2f…bfa2 politics 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$946 (+0%) realized +$944 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%36W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$1,439per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$47
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$160
other 28% −$304
sports 16% +$1,402
world 4% −$54
economics 2% −$14
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +1.4% -8.3% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 94 +0.5% -9.1% 7% 4% -8.9%
all 176 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 10% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 10% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 9% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,877) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$9 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized+$944
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses36 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)176 / 179
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,439
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $252 $252 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $225 $227 +$2 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $206 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $4,329 −$6 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $4,071 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $1,833 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $286 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $2,650 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $3,496 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,959 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $892 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,938 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,761 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,622 −$7 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,319 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,564 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,941 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,854 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $984 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,041 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $8,891 −$13 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $66 +$64 +97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $66 +$36 +55%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $998 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,238 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $2,444 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $6,348 −$7 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,653 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,398 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $2,779 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,243 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $252 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $206 7h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $413 27h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $413 28h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $262 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $263 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $452 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $453 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $285 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $286 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $241 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $242 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $530 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $531 6d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 6d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $274 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $238 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $238 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $492 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $493 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $891 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $892 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $816 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $817 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $913 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $749 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $750 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $789 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $790 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.47 · official $684.47 (match) · 651 history records