Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef2f…eb81 crypto 843 markets active 3d ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate54%478W / 413L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day155.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$260
14 days−$242
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -22.0% -29.4% 30% 18% -17.5%
≤30d 891 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 8% -11.0%
≤90d 891 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 8% -11.0%
all 891 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 8% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 5% -19.5%
15% -28.8% 5% -27.3%
20% -35.8% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses478 / 413
Open positions0
Markets (closed)891 / 843
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day155.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 891 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records