Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EF 0xef2c…a5a5 politics 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1
politics 43% +$2
world 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
all 9 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage127d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 21 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Mar 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats Mar 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 08 $32 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 12 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? Feb 12 $37 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 29d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 29d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H SELL Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H BUY Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next SELL Yes 0¢ $36 96d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $36 96d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats SELL Yes 0¢ $36 100d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats BUY Yes 0¢ $36 100d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 103d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 103d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 50¢ $35 127d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 49¢ $34 127d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 50¢ $35 127d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 49¢ $34 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $5 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $30 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $34 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.69 · official $40.69 (match) · 24 history records