Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef2c…be40 sports 328 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-2%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%142W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435
7 days−$489
14 days−$489
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$192
crypto 41% −$336
other 3% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 41% -20.1%
≤30d 328 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 41% -20.1%
≤90d 328 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 41% -20.1%
all 328 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 41% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 41% -20.1%
10% -22.6% 37% -27.8%
15% -30.1% 31% -34.7%
20% -37.0% 24% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses142 / 186
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)328 / 328
History coverage84d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 328 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $239 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$69 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $120 +$49 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$23 +22%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $131 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$29 -77%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $10 +$19 +191%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $15 +$3 +22%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $8 −$3 -41%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $10 −$4 -35%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $10 +$15 +143%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +51%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $8 +$6 +75%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $4 +$5 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +64%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$10 +188%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1007 history records