Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EF 0xef2b…0111 sports 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-12%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%150W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$174
weather 45% +$11
other 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 35 +5.6% -4.4% 89% 9% -7.9%
all 307 -12.5% -20.9% 49% 39% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 39% -20.6%
10% -28.4% 39% -28.2%
15% -35.4% 38% -35.1%
20% -41.7% 38% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses150 / 157
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage215d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 16? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 15? May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 14? May 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 1? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? May 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 24? May 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on April 18? Apr 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on April 18? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? Apr 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 9? Apr 10 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on Apr Apr 05 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 1? Apr 04 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 1? Apr 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 27? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 27? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 27 Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 23 Mar 27 $1 +$2 +201%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 27 $1 +$3 +257%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on Marc Mar 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 23 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 23 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-12.5) Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Mar 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Mar 10 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Mar 10 $2 +$2 +92%
Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 207.5 Mar 10 $2 +$2 +92%
1H Spread: Hornets (-4.5) Mar 10 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) Mar 10 $3 +$2 +82%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-1.5) Feb 25 $2 $0 -2%
1H Spread: Hawks (-7.5) Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-1.5) Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -84%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5 Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 35d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 36d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 36d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 36d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 37d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 38d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 38d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 43d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 43d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 43d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 48d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 49d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 57d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 62d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 63d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on April 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 64d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $40 68d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 69d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 509 history records