Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef2a…bd7e sports 1420 markets active 49d ago coverage 68d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,567 (+348%) realized +$1,415 · open +$152
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%28W / 1764L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,346
7 days+$1,346
14 days+$1,346
30 days+$1,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$162
other 19% +$191
world 10% −$3
crypto 10% +$14
tech 9% −$42
weather 6% +$60
politics 2% −$9
culture 1% −$6
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-71.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 373 -4.0% -13.2% 5% 5% -99.5%
≤30d 373 -4.0% -13.2% 5% 5% -99.5%
≤90d 375 +6.7% -3.5% 5% 5% -89.5%
all 1792 -68.0% -71.1% 2% 2% -92.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.1% 2% -92.3%
10% ← realistic here -73.8% 2% -93.1%
15% -76.4% 2% -93.7%
20% -78.7% 2% -94.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1943% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt +237% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$0 · ×212.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$1,415
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses28 / 1764
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions113
Markets (closed)1792 / 1420
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 113 History 1792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Samsonova 44¢ $0 $51 +$51 (+43650%)
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 15¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+14850%)
Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes $0 $7 +$6 (+4850%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $0 $6 +$5 (+3100%)
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $5 +$5 (+3440%)
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $5 +$5 (+3300%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $5 +$4 (+2950%)
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+2750%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+2500%)
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+2440%)
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+2500%)
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+2040%)
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+1800%)
Will Petr Yan fight Alexander Volkanovski next? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+600%)
Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+3800%)
Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+900%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $0 $2 +$1 (+450%)
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+600%)
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+800%)
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+300%)
Will Petr Yan fight Dominick Cruz next? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+700%)
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+500%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+87439%)
Will Petr Yan fight Deiveson Figueiredo next? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+200%)
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+450%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 387 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 15 $0 +$82 +9125667%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division? Jun 15 $0 +$7 +794889%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November? Jun 15 $0 +$148 +16494667%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of t Jun 15 $0 +$34 +3786556%
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +363767%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? Jun 15 $0 +$21 +2305000%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9? Jun 15 $0 +$58 +6474333%
Boston College Eagles vs. Florida Atlantic Owls Jun 15 $0 +$40 +4422444%
Will Ciucu win by at least 12%? Jun 15 $0 +$47 +6744771%
Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Jun 15 $0 +$21 +3069586%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 15 $0 +$28 +4608067%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on November 30? Jun 15 $0 +$65 +10755217%
New Zealand Breakers vs. Adelaide 36ers Jun 15 $0 +$225 +37530717%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 +$99 +14082486%
East-West Phantoms vs. Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles Jun 15 $0 +$29 +4842933%
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor in the 2026 Critics Choice Jun 15 $0 +$13 +6530850%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January? Jun 15 $0 +$63 +63323100%
Daegu Pegasus vs. Seoul Thunders Jun 15 $0 +$337 +337247800%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 +$97 +48681950%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jun 15 $0 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on December Jun 15 $0 $0 -50%
Dota 2: Team Rostikfacekid vs Team 9pasha - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Zomblers - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Kasatkina vs. Cristian: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
SA20: Joburg Super Kings vs MI Cape Town (Game 1) - Toss Match Double Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Club Portugalete win on 2025-10-29? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Jacquemot vs. Tomljanovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 13 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on De Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: GnG Amazigh vs Ghools Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada win the 2025 SailGP Championship Season 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 9? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hon vs. Osorio: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 23°F or below on February 1 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on November 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta De Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 26 be between 2,40 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dilan Yeşilgöz out as VVD leader before Netherlands election? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 21 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading o Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Prizmic (-1.5) vs Heide (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Honor of Kings: Rogue Warriors vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season SELL Yes 20¢ $14 48d
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 18¢ $65 53d
Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $3 61d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season SELL Yes 18¢ $1 62d
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre SELL Yes 18¢ $19 68d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi SELL Yes 18¢ $19 68d
Will Tottenham finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Lea SELL Yes 18¢ $4 68d
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 77d
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 90d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 91d
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 93d
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 93d
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 93d
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 95d
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 95d
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 97d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 102d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 102d
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (W) SELL Wake Forest Demon Deacons 18¢ $10 104d
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 104d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $70 105d
Will another team win the 2025-2026 SEC Men's Basketball regular seaso SELL Yes 18¢ $3 106d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 18¢ $44 106d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 106d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 106d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 106d
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 107d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Central Division? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 109d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 19¢ $1 110d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 19¢ $2 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.22 · official $166.44 · 3500 history records