Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef29…2f1e sports 566 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,572 (-11%) realized −$28,601 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%340W / 280L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day157.8pace
Fees−$2,554est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,713
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +80.8% +63.6% 41% 23% -85.0%
≤30d 620 +11.1% +0.5% 55% 34% -25.3%
≤90d 620 +11.1% +0.5% 55% 34% -25.3%
all 620 +11.1% +0.5% 55% 34% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 34% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 20% -32.5%
15% -17.9% 11% -39.0%
20% -25.9% 9% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$580) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$359 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$28,601
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses340 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$2,554
Open positions1
Markets (closed)620 / 566
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$448
Trades / day157.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura Jake Delaney 89¢ 100¢ $235 $264 +$29 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Bol: Miriam Bulgaru vs Iva Primorac Jun 21 $6 +$217 +3868%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $2,563 −$2,563 -100%
ITF Bol: Weronika Falkowska vs Iva Primorac Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 21 $2,330 −$2,330 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang Jun 21 $29 +$711 +2442%
Cervia: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 21 $299 −$299 -100%
Chisinau: Pavel Kotov vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 21 $0 +$1,198 +342110%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $347 −$915 -264%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 21 $1,008 −$1,118 -111%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 21 $1,681 −$1,681 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Jun 21 $3,003 −$3,003 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 21 $1,996 −$1,996 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva Jun 21 $3,321 −$3,321 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray Jun 21 $95 −$95 -100%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 21 $3,399 −$3,399 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa Jun 21 $96 −$553 -574%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 21 $1,896 −$1,896 -100%
ITF Gimcheon: Sanhui Shin vs Dong Ju Kim Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 21 $2,999 −$2,999 -100%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady Jun 21 $650 −$660 -102%
Vicenza: Lautaro Midon vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 21 $14 +$540 +3802%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 21 $1,517 −$1,517 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea Jun 21 $122 +$372 +306%
ITF Wichita: Eryn Cayetano vs Dana Guzman Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Oksa Jun 21 $448 −$216 -48%
Parma: Camila Osorio vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 21 $1 +$20 +1534%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud Jun 21 $992 −$992 -100%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey Jun 21 $3,481 −$3,481 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Clement Tabur Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
ITF Bol: Tiago Pereira vs Alan Wazny Jun 21 $374 −$374 -100%
Centurion: Filip Peliwo vs Arda Azkara Jun 21 $0 −$5 -3356%
Centurion: Yusuke Takahashi vs Edward Winter Jun 21 $246 −$755 -307%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $1,936 −$1,936 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lisa Zaar vs Laura Samson Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Vicenza: Marco Cecchinato vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 21 $33 +$948 +2914%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Jun 21 $3,998 −$3,998 -100%
ITF Troisdorf: Mika Petkovic vs Marvin Moeller Jun 21 $892 −$892 -100%
Chisinau: Elias Ymer vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 21 $36 +$441 +1224%
ITF Bol: Noa Vukadin vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 21 $1,309 −$1,309 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 21 $0 $0 -24%
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 21 $1,611 −$1,611 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
ITF Wichita: Carolyn Ansari vs Xin Tong Wang Jun 21 $119 −$119 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Shuai Zha Jun 21 $527 −$300 -57%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 21 $1,619 −$1,619 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Jake Delaney 90¢ $86 43m
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Jake Delaney 88¢ $62 44m
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Jake Delaney 89¢ $88 45m
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 91¢ $99 56m
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 87¢ $9 57m
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 95¢ $95 1h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 89¢ $100 1h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 84¢ $30 1h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 80¢ $4 1h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 69¢ $100 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Jan Choinski 94¢ $1 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Jan Choinski 97¢ $74 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 98¢ $100 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 97¢ $71 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Alycia Parks 46¢ $36 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 41¢ $4 10h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Sebastian Ofner 64¢ $101 11h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 69¢ $55 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 30¢ $102 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 26¢ $102 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 30¢ $2 12h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 69¢ $15 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 97¢ $97 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 97¢ $100 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 97¢ $99 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 96¢ $78 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 97¢ $24 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 97¢ $19 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 97¢ $19 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Indianna Spink 13¢ $102 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.92 · official $263.92 (match) · 3500 history records