Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef21…ac34
other · 3 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$259 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$237 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$888
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage3d
Avg bet$765
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 1 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$237
7 days−$237
14 days−$237
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $910 $888 −$22 (-2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 0¢ $559 $0 −$559 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $571 −$559 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $795 +$322 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% +$300
sports 25% −$559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $929 54m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $571 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $683 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $112 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 50% -25.4%
≤30d 2 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 50% -25.4%
≤90d 2 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 50% -25.4%
all 2 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 50% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 50% -25.4%
10% -42.5% 50% -32.5%
15% -48.1% 50% -39.0%
20% -53.2% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $888.33 · official $888.33 (match) · 5 history records