Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef20…8f64 sports 465 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$957 (+2%) realized +$958 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%166W / 297L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$451est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$632
7 days+$2,174
14 days+$1,822
30 days+$3,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$88
other 15% +$490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +17.8% +6.6% 38% 38% +21.8%
≤30d 97 +29.9% +17.5% 46% 44% +17.2%
≤90d 386 -3.0% -12.3% 36% 34% -14.1%
all 463 -3.3% -12.5% 36% 33% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 33% -8.4%
10% -20.9% 33% -17.1%
15% -28.5% 33% -25.2%
20% -35.5% 32% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$83 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$958
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses166 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$451
Open positions2
Markets (closed)463 / 465
History coverage103d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 53¢ 52¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 2 eStar Pro 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rodionov vs. Zhou: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $229 −$19 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $41 +$84 +206%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $256 +$476 +186%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $123 +$97 +78%
Minaur vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $128 −$2 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $75 +$129 +172%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $175 +$216 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,500 +$531 +35%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $254 +$246 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $347 −$340 -98%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 15 $12 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $50 −$50 -98%
New Zealand to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +445%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $99 −$99 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $514 −$245 -48%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$70 +344%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 +$56 +414%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $6 +$14 +226%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $69 −$67 -98%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 13 $28 +$51 +182%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$26 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $524 −$512 -98%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $105 +$275 +262%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $152 +$148 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $897 +$1,105 +123%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $348 +$352 +101%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Bublik Jun 12 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $24 +$2 +9%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $42 +$63 +152%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $145 −$143 -98%
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $53 −$52 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $73 +$127 +175%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $119 −$117 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY eStar Pro 35¢ $7 1h
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY eStar Pro 34¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 54¢ $47 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $7 1h
Rodionov vs. Zhou: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 17h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 42¢ $19 19h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 42¢ $50 19h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 42¢ $10 19h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 42¢ $81 19h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 42¢ $50 19h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 45¢ $229 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 32¢ $41 40h
Minaur vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 40h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 42¢ $126 42h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $128 42h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 27¢ $38 43h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 28¢ $17 43h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 28¢ $68 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $27 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $3 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $13 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $4 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $5 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $13 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $5 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $13 43h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $18 44h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $3 44h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $5 44h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $50 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.73 · official $62.38 (match) · 1464 history records