Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EF 0xef20…e78f sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$4
other 14% −$1
politics 14% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 100% +0.2%
≤90d 7 -13.7% -21.9% 43% 14% -9.8%
all 7 -13.7% -21.9% 43% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 14% -9.8%
10% -29.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -36.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -42.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage79d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $209 $208 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 03 $478 +$52 +11%
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) May 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? Apr 21 $162 −$26 -16%
Spread: Liberia (-1.5) Apr 01 $155 +$10 +6%
Spread: Peru (-1.5) Mar 30 $202 +$6 +3%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $204 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $209 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club BUY largadosypelados 90¢ $478 12d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY FC St. Pauli 1910 5¢ $23 42d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY FC St. Pauli 1910 5¢ $18 42d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY FC St. Pauli 1910 5¢ $5 42d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 42d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 42d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 42d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 42d
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? SELL No 43¢ $21 54d
Spread: Liberia (-1.5) BUY Libya 94¢ $155 75d
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? SELL No 76¢ $38 75d
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? SELL No 76¢ $38 75d
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? SELL No 78¢ $39 75d
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? BUY No 81¢ $162 75d
Spread: Peru (-1.5) BUY Senegal 97¢ $202 78d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 93¢ $204 78d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 93¢ $204 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.45 · official $208.45 (match) · 21 history records