Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef1f…d517
crypto · 155 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$68 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$455
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses81 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions47
Markets (closed)108 / 155
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day71.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 47 History 108 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$26
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 75¢ $42 $34 −$8 (-19%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 60¢ 98¢ $19 $31 +$12 (+63%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $18 $25 +$8 (+44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 85¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 67¢ 79¢ $14 $16 +$3 (+18%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 78¢ 77¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 50¢ $6 $12 +$7 (+114%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 44¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+197%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 23¢ 45¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+92%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 89¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 85¢ 74¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 62¢ 42¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 32¢ 63¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+99%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 25¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$6 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% +$9
crypto 25% +$26
other 9% −$7
politics 9% +$4
tech 2% +$4
sports 2% +$2
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 27m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 31m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $11 32m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 50m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +6.4% -3.7% 76% 39% -7.3%
≤30d 108 +4.3% -5.6% 75% 36% -7.6%
≤90d 108 +4.3% -5.6% 75% 36% -7.6%
all 108 +4.3% -5.6% 75% 36% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 36% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 20% -16.4%
15% -22.9% 8% -24.5%
20% -30.5% 5% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.07 · official $454.69 (match) · 935 history records