Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef1b…8697 sports 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40,579 (+3%) realized +$36,165 · open +$4,414
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%94W / 132L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$7,060per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$23,797est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$30,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23,737
7 days+$9,012
14 days−$824
30 days−$254,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$49,238
crypto 1% −$5,711
other 1% −$10,544
culture 0% −$655
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 45% +2.9%
≤30d 128 -29.6% -36.3% 32% 31% -29.3%
≤90d 189 -17.7% -25.5% 37% 37% -12.9%
all 226 -4.0% -13.1% 42% 41% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 41% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 40% -16.7%
15% -29.0% 40% -24.8%
20% -36.0% 40% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$10,000) neutral
Persistence
early +32% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,206 vs −$6,344 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$30,379
Realized+$36,165
Unrealized+$4,414
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses94 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$23,797
Open positions3
Markets (closed)226 / 229
History coverage447d
Avg bet$7,060
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees No 48¢ 100¢ $6,966 $14,509 +$7,543 (+108%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 48¢ 48¢ $10,000 $9,969 −$31 (-0%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ 32¢ $9,000 $5,901 −$3,099 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 18 $9,839 +$7,215 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $4,811 −$4,717 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $11,834 +$20,300 +172%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $7,896 −$7,795 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $5,082 +$5,929 +117%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T Jun 18 $3,044 +$2,806 +92%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $5,352 −$5,256 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $4,580 −$4,488 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 15 $3,479 −$3,466 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,995 +$3,423 +68%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $5,041 −$4,937 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 07 $3,967 −$3,936 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $6,004 −$5,900 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $10,946 −$10,729 -98%
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo Jun 01 $5,789 −$5,684 -98%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 01 $4,985 +$5,748 +115%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $4,000 −$3,916 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $8,568 −$317 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $4,744 +$4,329 +91%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $4,072 −$4,000 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $4,997 +$5,665 +113%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $6,521 −$6,372 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $12,483 −$12,299 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $12,349 −$12,123 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $9,793 +$12,096 +124%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los May 24 $9,939 −$9,881 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $11,894 −$11,720 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v May 23 $5,176 −$3,718 -72%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. May 23 $6,057 +$6,030 +100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $10,562 −$10,500 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $10,474 −$10,268 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $15,582 +$19,659 +126%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $7,541 −$7,409 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs May 23 $7,319 −$7,257 -99%
Cervia: Max Alcala Gurri vs Buvaysar Gadamauri May 23 $11,189 −$10,997 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $11,079 +$14,827 +134%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $18,914 −$18,760 -99%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 23 $8,800 +$12,178 +138%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $9,817 +$16,197 +165%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $7,274 −$7,109 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. May 23 $12,005 +$7,975 +66%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $5,094 −$5,094 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants May 23 $5,862 −$5,862 -100%
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Terence Atmane May 23 $5,073 −$5,073 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Mi May 23 $6,594 −$6,594 -100%
Istanbul: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Thiago Monteiro May 23 $7,891 −$7,891 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ka May 23 $7,055 −$7,055 -100%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 23 $8,142 −$8,142 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Was May 23 $6,093 −$6,093 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 23 $2,563 −$2,563 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $10,157 0m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi SELL Yes 100¢ $17,053 17m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ $9,136 17m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $25 24m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $6 24m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $4 24m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $43 24m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $7 24m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $6 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $33 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $5 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $21 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $107 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $7 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $2 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $1,036 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $10 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $208 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $9 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $92 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $3 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $1,689 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $85 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $29 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $421 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $212 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $2 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $157 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $1 25m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 48¢ $265 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,379.18 · official $27,632.43 · 1777 history records