Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef16…d826 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$111 (+5%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$211
other 24% +$299
finance 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +16.1% +5.0% 42% 42% -2.0%
≤30d 12 +16.1% +5.0% 42% 42% -2.0%
≤90d 24 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 46% -5.3%
all 24 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 46% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 46% -5.3%
10% -10.3% 42% -14.3%
15% -18.9% 33% -22.6%
20% -26.9% 25% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$38 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage88d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $241 +$27 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $243 −$3 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $99 −$98 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $72 −$28 -39%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$40 +39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $359 −$29 -8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$4 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $144 +$164 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 −$4 -7%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$12 +238%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 $0 -1%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 May 09 $15 +$1 +10%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $223 −$219 -98%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 03 $162 +$105 +65%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $61 +$106 +172%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $26 +$25 +95%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 01 $18 +$8 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 25 $14 +$4 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $267 22m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $241 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $241 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $243 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $99 2d
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 14¢ $44 3d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $72 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 70¢ $141 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $330 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $359 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $156 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $47 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $144 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $46 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $6 38d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 38d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 38d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 62¢ $10 38d
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 39d
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $15 39d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $223 42d
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 42d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $162 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 36¢ $61 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records