Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef14…3eda weather 920 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$501 (-5%) realized −$487 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%274W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$254
14 days+$196
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$466
other 6% +$72
world 4% +$57
politics 3% −$112
culture 1% +$17
sports 1% −$7
crypto 1% +$11
economics 0% +$75
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +40.8% +27.3% 40% 40% +14.0%
≤30d 514 +7.6% -2.7% 31% 31% -9.9%
≤90d 837 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 32% -13.4%
all 837 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 32% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 32% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 30% -21.7%
15% -27.4% 26% -29.2%
20% -34.5% 23% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$487
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses274 / 563
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)837 / 920
History coverage77d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 83¢ 76¢ $33 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? No 61¢ 84¢ $12 $17 +$4 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 54¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 45¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 40¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? No 52¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 56¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? No 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? No 47¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? No 74¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 480 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$43 +486%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$11 +112%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $13 +$7 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $11 +$9 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$9 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$17 +478%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$19 +1265%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$13 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 40¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 45¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.32 · official $101.04 · 1973 history records