Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef11…26eb crypto 971 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$752 (-0%) realized −$746 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate78%761W / 209L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$257
14 days−$257
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 203 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 859 -2.8% -12.1% 83% 12% -10.1%
all 970 -3.2% -12.4% 78% 15% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 15% -10.2%
10% -20.8% 14% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 12% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$36 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$746
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses761 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)970 / 971
History coverage95d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 970 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 95¢ 40¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.24 · official $4.13 (match) · 2549 history records