Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef0a…75a4 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$75 (-2%) realized −$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$9
crypto 21% −$142
politics 15% +$27
sports 3% −$11
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.6% -30.9% 62% 35% -11.4%
≤30d 26 -23.6% -30.9% 62% 35% -11.4%
≤90d 26 -23.6% -30.9% 62% 35% -11.4%
all 34 -23.6% -30.9% 65% 26% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 26% -13.4%
10% -37.5% 12% -21.7%
15% -43.6% 6% -29.2%
20% -49.1% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$32 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage237d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 −$12 -11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $11 +$11 +96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $220 +$5 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 $0 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $253 +$134 +53%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$16 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $120 +$10 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 18? Dec 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 13? Dec 13 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%? Dec 12 $537 +$7 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $511 +$27 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 82¢ $21 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 82¢ $43 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 98¢ $100 42m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 67¢ $1 46m
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $210 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.91 · official $228.91 (match) · 91 history records