Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef08…bb52 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%30W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$15
14 days+$13
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 -44.8% -50.1% 55% 0% -9.6%
all 47 -31.7% -38.2% 64% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -44.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -49.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -54.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,081) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$1,067
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses30 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage200d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,065 $1,064 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,063 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,062 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,058 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,057 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,055 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,052 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,049 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 27 $1,116 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25? Feb 26 $1,114 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 Feb 25 $1,112 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $1,109 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 22 Feb 23 $1,107 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $1,106 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $1,103 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 20 $1,099 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,096 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $1,092 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 16 Feb 17 $1,089 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 15? Feb 15 $1,081 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 14 Feb 15 $1,078 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 13 Feb 14 $1,075 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,065 +$9 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on February 6? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 22? Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 15? Dec 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,063 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,058 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,057 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,052 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY No 0¢ $3 20d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 27d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? BUY No 0¢ $3 38d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 58d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 67d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 72d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,116 111d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,114 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,112 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,109 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 22 BUY No 100¢ $647 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 22 BUY No 100¢ $460 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.15 · official $1,067.15 (match) · 92 history records