Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef04…f6e3 sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,459 (-7%) realized −$17,459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate88%160W / 22L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,331per market
Trades / day215.8pace
Fees−$1,342est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,532
7 days+$3,069
14 days−$16,175
30 days−$15,448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$14,363
other 17% −$1,124
world 1% +$36
crypto 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -1.1% -10.5% 90% 12% -6.3%
≤30d 182 +17.4% +6.3% 88% 15% -15.7%
≤90d 182 +17.4% +6.3% 88% 15% -15.7%
all 182 +17.4% +6.3% 88% 15% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 15% -15.7%
10% -3.9% 8% -23.8%
15% ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -31.1%
20% -21.7% 4% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,619) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$1,363 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses160 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,342
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 177
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$1,331
Trades / day215.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 17 $1 $0 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$5 -251%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $974 +$31 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,023 +$756 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7,139 +$250 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,019 +$843 +14%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,619 +$21 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,179 −$79 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $500 +$16 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,987 +$58 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,218 +$22 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,277 −$765 -34%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,203 +$41 +2%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $691 +$18 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,401 +$13 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $801 +$16 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,511 +$43 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5,119 +$68 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,769 +$111 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $978 +$18 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $891 +$34 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,091 +$44 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $401 +$12 +3%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,283 +$46 +4%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $365 +$29 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $208 +$9 +4%
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $830 +$25 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,602 +$17 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,002 +$18 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $801 +$7 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $801 +$26 +3%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $601 +$5 +1%
CF Universidad de Chile leading at halftime? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,407 +$27 +2%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $900 +$13 +1%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $504 +$15 +3%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $298 +$5 +2%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3,002 +$119 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $423 +$15 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $600 +$6 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $356 +$7 +2%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $680 +$95 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $600 +$12 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $200 35m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $117 35m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3 35m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $39 35m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $41 35m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $101 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $200 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $101 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $200 37m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $58 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $24 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $51 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $172 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $38 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $96 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $11 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $11 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $100 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $66 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $94 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $40 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $31 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $9 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $17 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records