Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

EF 0xef03…d3ad other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$15 (+9%) realized +$35 · open −$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day17.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+37.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+52.1%	+37.6%	80%	80%	+14.0%
≤30d	5	+52.1%	+37.6%	80%	80%	+14.0%
≤90d	5	+52.1%	+37.6%	80%	80%	+14.0%
all	5	+52.1%	+37.6%	80%	80%	+14.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.6%	80%	+14.0%
10%	+24.4%	80%	+3.1%
15%	+12.4%	80%	-6.9%
20%	+1.4%	60%	-16.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized+$35

Unrealized−$20

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day17.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	40¢	30¢	$60	$44	−$16 (-27%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	48¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	30¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-38%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$16	+80%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$10	+$10	+101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$17	−$17	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+138%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$4	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	58m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	59m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	59m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$3	5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$2	5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$14	17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$1	20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.54 · official $89.85 (match) · 17 history records