Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef02…25a5 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$71 (-8%) realized −$67 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$61
sports 15% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 47% -20.3%
≤30d 17 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 47% -20.3%
≤90d 17 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 47% -20.3%
all 17 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 47% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -20.3%
10% -22.2% 47% -27.9%
15% -29.7% 47% -34.9%
20% -36.6% 24% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 34h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 34h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.86 · official $255.86 (match) · 35 history records