Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef01…ff4c crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized +$12 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$137
economics 22% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 15 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 27% -48.0%
all 18 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 28% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 28% -46.7%
10% -46.7% 28% -51.8%
15% -51.9% 11% -56.5%
20% -56.6% 11% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage132d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $116 $97 −$19 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 11 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 11 $9 +$26 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 11 $17 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 11 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 11 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 11 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 11 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 11 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 11 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 11 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 06 $8 +$6 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 05 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $23 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $9 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $17 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $14 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $4 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.81 · official $96.81 (match) · 89 history records