Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeefd…e8ba sports 437 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-4%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%235W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$80
world 28% +$5
crypto 15% +$7
other 14% −$8
politics 1% −$10
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 43% -3.0%
≤30d 210 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 45% -17.9%
≤90d 342 -21.4% -28.9% 48% 37% -22.5%
all 437 -12.3% -20.6% 54% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 40% -13.6%
10% -28.2% 29% -21.9%
15% -35.1% 22% -29.5%
20% -41.5% 16% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses235 / 202
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage224d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1139 history records