Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeefc…49ba other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,195 (-1%) realized −$2,195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%33W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,282per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$28
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$2,290
politics 34% −$77
sports 16% +$160
culture 3% −$7
economics 3% −$7
world 1% +$3
crypto 1% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -10.6% -19.1% 5% 2% -11.9%
all 143 +3.2% -6.6% 23% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -10.6%
10% -15.5% 9% -19.2%
15% -23.7% 9% -27.0%
20% -31.2% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,811) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$29 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized−$2,195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses33 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,282
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $326 $326 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $356 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $3,007 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $367 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $313 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,258 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,742 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,271 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,489 −$4 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,897 −$4 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $82 +$74 +90%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $325 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $560 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $1,766 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $512 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,838 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $652 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $75 +$39 +52%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,569 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,194 −$5 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $2,564 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,500 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $356 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $356 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $325 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $325 7h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $376 23h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $377 25h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $366 26h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $367 27h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $312 31h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $313 32h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $562 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $563 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $465 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $466 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $461 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $462 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $415 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $415 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $881 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $882 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $864 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $865 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 11d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $326 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.20 · official $326.20 (match) · 452 history records