Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeefa…f400 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$154 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$1
sports 14% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.4% -23.5% 44% 28% -18.7%
≤30d 18 -15.4% -23.5% 44% 28% -18.7%
≤90d 18 -15.4% -23.5% 44% 28% -18.7%
all 18 -15.4% -23.5% 44% 28% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 28% -18.7%
10% -30.8% 17% -26.5%
15% -37.5% 17% -33.6%
20% -43.6% 11% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $274 $400 +$126 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $148 +$32 +22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $339 −$121 -36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$6 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$5 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$13 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $79 +$12 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 +$8 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $57 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $60 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 92¢ $92 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $59 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $112 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $152 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 71¢ $5 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $22 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $86 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $73 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 19¢ $9 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 82¢ $11 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 80¢ $31 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 22h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.79 · official $399.79 (match) · 58 history records