Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xeef9…8731 sports 535 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,697 (-4%) realized −$1,570 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%300W / 232L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$561est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days−$1,121
14 days−$3,351
30 days−$1,526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,903
other 14% −$2,692
world 2% −$890
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 52% -21.7%
≤30d 525 +5.6% -4.5% 57% 55% -12.5%
≤90d 532 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 55% -12.5%
all 532 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 55% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 55% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 54% -20.9%
15% -22.4% 50% -28.5%
20% -30.0% 43% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$82 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$1,570
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses300 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$561
Open positions3
Markets (closed)532 / 535
History coverage30d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs TEAM VISION 79¢ 100¢ $132 $167 +$35 (+26%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Infinite 55¢ 70¢ $82 $105 +$23 (+28%)
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) TEAM VISION 69¢ 0¢ $185 $0 −$185 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 25 $3 +$4 +144%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $248 +$62 +25%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $168 +$94 +56%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $281 +$76 +27%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $109 +$31 +29%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $77 −$77 -100%
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $34 +$46 +133%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? Jun 24 $82 +$55 +67%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $117 +$93 +79%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $142 +$97 +68%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $42 +$38 +89%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $154 +$70 +46%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $145 −$145 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $220 +$27 +12%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $79 +$21 +26%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $206 +$92 +45%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $111 +$6 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 +$4 +60%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $41 +$39 +96%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $86 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 22 $50 +$30 +61%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $92 −$1 -1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $40 +$45 +113%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $54 +$46 +85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 21 $6 $0 +5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $38 +$30 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,375 −$1,368 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $70 +$40 +56%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $80 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $86 +$55 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $69 +$54 +78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $480 +$320 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 +$55 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 52¢ $11 37m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 52¢ $16 37m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $8 37m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $8 38m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $8 38m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $11 38m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $6 38m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $2 38m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $5 38m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 56¢ $6 38m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 79¢ $132 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $310 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $248 2h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $54 3h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 41¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $263 4h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 70¢ $55 4h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 70¢ $77 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 48¢ $29 6h
First Blood in Game 2? BUY Team Spirit 54¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $27 7h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 41¢ $3 7h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 41¢ $4 7h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $12 8h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 45¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $45 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $56 8h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 41¢ $41 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $358 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.05 · official $272.05 (match) · 1638 history records