Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xeef6…0fe3 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$313 (+9%) realized +$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$151
14 days+$274
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$442
sports 14% −$75
crypto 4% −$97
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.2% -8.4% 65% 65% -3.6%
≤30d 30 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 57% -2.1%
≤90d 30 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 57% -2.1%
all 30 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 57% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 57% -2.1%
10% -20.1% 43% -11.5%
15% -27.8% 30% -20.0%
20% -34.9% 20% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$56 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage25d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $87 +$25 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$64 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +207%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$33 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $122 +$53 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $697 +$138 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $102 +$29 +28%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $271 +$282 +104%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 −$199 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $302 +$92 +30%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $301 +$15 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $302 +$60 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 +$41 +185%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $19 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $34 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 98¢ $37 30h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 57¢ $75 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $165 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 32h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $134 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $20 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 59¢ $127 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $835 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 83¢ $697 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 5d
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 44¢ $131 5d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 95¢ $475 5d
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 5d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 34¢ $78 5d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 36¢ $271 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.73 · official $33.73 (match) · 60 history records