Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xeeef…1644 sports 1481 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$994 (-9%) realized −$995 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate79%1174W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$18
14 days−$209
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$118
crypto 12% −$76
other 5% +$22
weather 2% +$9
finance 0% +$1
world 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -10.6% -19.1% 72% 36% -8.4%
≤30d 380 -13.0% -21.3% 72% 42% -14.4%
≤90d 1478 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 46% -10.9%
all 1478 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 46% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 21% -19.4%
15% -28.5% 9% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$995
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1174 / 304
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1478 / 1481
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Under 90¢ 91¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Paraguay 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 88¢ 85¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $85 +$2 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $2 $0 +11%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $2 $0 +23%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $90 −$4 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $4 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $80 +$3 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 18 $3 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +32%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $80 +$2 +3%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $77 +$3 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $75 +$1 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2¢ $0 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $80 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $2 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $85 2h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $2 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 91¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 91¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 90¢ $2 13h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 81¢ $2 13h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $86 13h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $2 24h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $90 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 72¢ $2 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $83 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $2 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $80 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 71¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 90¢ $5 32h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 33h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 89¢ $3 37h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 88¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 97¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 84¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.78 · official $83.00 · 3500 history records