Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeef…c1a1 politics 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,349 (-1%) realized −$2,350 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,176per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$23
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$90
other 38% +$54
sports 14% −$2,326
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$3
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +5.3% -4.7% 15% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 95 -10.8% -19.3% 6% 3% -11.6%
all 148 +3.5% -6.3% 20% 9% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 9% -10.7%
10% -15.3% 9% -19.3%
15% -23.5% 9% -27.1%
20% -31.0% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,440) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized−$2,350
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,176
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $393 $393 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $350 $351 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $291 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $839 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,972 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 14 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,133 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,942 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,493 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,089 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,856 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $57 +$40 +70%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $317 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $424 +$1 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $359 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,932 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $755 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $518 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $62 +$34 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $62 +$98 +158%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,559 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,223 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,177 −$3 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $6,617 −$8 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,214 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,439 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $3,437 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,544 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $393 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $395 40h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $396 42h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $291 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $291 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $677 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $678 4d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $837 5d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $839 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $655 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $656 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $649 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $650 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $806 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $807 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $766 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $767 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $764 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $764 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $350 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $877 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $879 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $902 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $904 12d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 13d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $707 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $708 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.94 · official $743.94 (match) · 484 history records