Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeeb…abbf sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$215 (-10%) realized −$215 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$2
sports 23% −$213
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -26.8% -33.7% 28% 28% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 28% -23.7%
10% -40.1% 28% -31.0%
15% -45.9% 28% -37.7%
20% -51.2% 28% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$850
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage573d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $400 −$1 -0%
Utah vs. Ducks Feb 15 $6 +$7 +104%
Panthers vs. Kings Nov 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Nov 04 $8 +$10 +113%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Oct 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Penguins vs. Ducks Oct 16 $9 +$7 +75%
Tigers vs. Red Sox Sep 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Twins vs. Rangers Sep 26 $5 +$7 +138%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 25 $8 +$8 +100%
Chargers vs. Raiders Sep 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Pirates vs. Orioles Sep 11 $2 −$2 -100%
TCU vs. North Carolina Sep 11 $4 +$2 +61%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Cubs vs. Blue Jays Aug 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 12 $3 +$4 +127%
Will Jonathan Jaffe win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Everton wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Feb 10 $153 −$153 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Feb 07 $103 +$112 +108%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Nov 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $400 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 24h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 24h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 24h
Utah vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 49¢ $6 216d
Panthers vs. Kings BUY Kings 51¢ $22 227d
Lakers vs. Grizzlies BUY Lakers 47¢ $8 233d
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs BUY Rangers 44¢ $16 248d
Penguins vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 57¢ $9 250d
Tigers vs. Red Sox BUY Tigers 48¢ $15 268d
Twins vs. Rangers BUY Twins 42¢ $5 269d
Rays vs. Orioles BUY Orioles 50¢ $8 271d
Chargers vs. Raiders BUY Raiders 38¢ $3 279d
Pirates vs. Orioles BUY Pirates 46¢ $2 283d
TCU vs. North Carolina BUY TCU 62¢ $4 293d
Falcons vs. Cowboys BUY Falcons 43¢ $3 303d
Cubs vs. Blue Jays BUY Cubs 50¢ $7 311d
Marlins vs. Guardians BUY Marlins 44¢ $6 313d
Will Jonathan Jaffe win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $1 318d
Twins vs. Tigers BUY Twins 44¢ $3 320d
Braves vs. Reds BUY Braves 43¢ $4 324d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 97¢ $5 409d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 409d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 438d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 438d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $849.57 · official $849.57 (match) · 52 history records