Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeee8…7e06 crypto 436 markets active 1h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,989 (-6%) realized −$3,367 · open +$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%203W / 219L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$55
14 days−$486
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$4,241
other 13% +$330
world 8% +$1,026
politics 3% −$163
finance 1% −$36
tech 1% +$55
sports 0% −$26
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.3% +4.3% 100% 67% +4.9%
≤30d 31 -35.5% -41.6% 55% 29% -15.1%
≤90d 118 -20.3% -27.8% 53% 37% -13.7%
all 422 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 33% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 33% -15.9%
10% -25.4% 22% -23.9%
15% -32.6% 15% -31.3%
20% -39.2% 12% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$50 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$2,719
Realized−$3,367
Unrealized+$288
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses203 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)422 / 436
History coverage655d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 71¢ 92¢ $396 $511 +$115 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 68¢ 93¢ $299 $410 +$111 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 84¢ 84¢ $275 $276 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 76¢ 97¢ $201 $257 +$56 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 80¢ 82¢ $245 $253 +$8 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 75¢ 96¢ $184 $235 +$52 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 73¢ 95¢ $121 $157 +$36 (+30%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 86¢ 98¢ $106 $121 +$15 (+14%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 85¢ 94¢ $107 $117 +$11 (+10%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 90¢ 86¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 81¢ 98¢ $81 $98 +$17 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $81 $87 +$6 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 64¢ 30¢ $182 $86 −$96 (-53%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $44 $4 −$40 (-90%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? No 81¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? No 89¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? No 65¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $124 +$26 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $128 +$21 +17%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $85 +$33 +38%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 06 $91 −$85 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $214 −$164 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 02 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $76 −$76 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $85 −$85 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $501 +$35 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $650 +$25 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 30 $198 +$2 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 30 $116 −$97 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $85 +$11 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $426 +$73 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $113 +$7 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 29 $448 +$17 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $383 +$128 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 27 $182 +$66 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 27 $395 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 27 $76 +$14 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $59 +$13 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 27 $34 −$31 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 20? Apr 26 $7 −$6 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $16 −$4 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $14 +$13 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $8 −$6 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $15 −$8 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 20 $10 −$7 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $8 −$3 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $5 +$12 +244%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 19 $200 +$32 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $6 −$5 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $19 +$62 +318%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $17 −$13 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $14 −$11 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $54 +$15 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $68 56m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $114 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $23 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 100¢ $150 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $111 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 86¢ $43 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 85¢ $65 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 92¢ $92 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 85¢ $128 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 82¢ $124 5d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $4 8d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $103 8d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $11 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 6¢ $6 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 63¢ $89 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 60¢ $77 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 66¢ $98 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $123 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 69¢ $106 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 73¢ $31 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $138 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $4 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $88 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,718.96 · official $2,715.89 (match) · 2901 history records