Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeedf…5ffe crypto 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+8%) realized +$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%61W / 36L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$27
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +8.3% -2.1% 63% 63% -0.8%
≤30d 97 +8.3% -2.1% 63% 63% -0.8%
≤90d 97 +8.3% -2.1% 63% 63% -0.8%
all 97 +8.3% -2.1% 63% 63% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 63% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 59% -10.3%
15% -20.0% 58% -18.9%
20% -27.8% 58% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses61 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 61¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.23 (match) · 200 history records