Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xeedf…d77c other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+23%) realized +$46 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$20
sports 45% −$10
world 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +50.4% +36.1% 25% 25% +51.1%
≤30d 8 +50.4% +36.1% 25% 25% +51.1%
≤90d 8 +50.4% +36.1% 25% 25% +51.1%
all 8 +50.4% +36.1% 25% 25% +51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.1% 25% +51.1%
10% ← realistic here +23.0% 25% +36.6%
15% +11.1% 25% +23.4%
20% +0.2% 25% +11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$4 · ×5.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)8 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +299%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 +$36 +704%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 4¢ $4 50m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 13¢ $15 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.90 · official $52.90 (match) · 23 history records